Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but very few politicians or advocates want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. They writes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has got something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
