Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from Washington follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but avoiding a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
